Saturday, February 18, 2017

Money Flows (volume X's velocity)

The distributed lag effect of money flows, bank debits (even using a surrogate metric, RRs), have been mathematical, indeed celestial (gravitational), constants, ∝, for 100 + years.

There are 6 seasonal, endogenous, economic inflection points each year. These seasonal factors are pre-determined by the FRB-NY’s "trading desk" operations, executing the FOMC's monetary policy directives (in the present case just reserve "smoothing" and “draining” operations, the oscillating inflows and outflows, the making and or receiving of inter-bank payments).

Every year, the seasonal factor's map (economic time series’ cyclical trend), or scientific proof, is demonstrated by the product of money flows, our means-of-payment money X’ its transaction’s velocity of circulation (the scientific method).

Monetary flows (volume time’s velocity) measures money’s impact on production, prices, and the economy (as flows are driven by payments: “bank debits”). Rates-of-change Δ, in M*Vt = RoC’s Δ in AD, aggregate monetary purchasing power. Thus M*Vt serves as a “guide post” for N-gDp trajectories.

N-gDp is determined by the volume of goods & services coming on the market relative to the actual, transactions, flow of money. Roc's in R-gDp serves as a close proxy to RoC's in total physical transactions, T, that finance both goods and services. Then RoC's in P, represents the price level, or various RoC's in a group of prices and indices.

Monetary flows’ propagation, are a mathematically robust sequence of numbers (sigma Σ), neither neutral nor opaque, which pre-determine marco-economic momentum. For short-term money flows, the proxy for real-output, R-gDp, it's the rate of accumulation, a posteriori, that adds incrementally and immediately to its running total. Its economic impact is defined by its rate-of-change, Δ "change in". The RoC, is the pace at which a variable changes, Δ, over that specific lag's established periodicity.

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